Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 19.695379 22.902397 26.760870 31.837843 38.489682 47.134606 59.631694
2025-01-19 15.148182 18.628690 23.207337 29.915601 39.967696 55.404807 83.247503
2025-01-26 14.554587 18.845101 24.989370 35.030755 52.484075 85.415953 167.294280
2025-02-02 13.448874 18.028323 24.983227 37.297503 61.372891 115.912391 307.787294
2025-02-09 11.800881 16.106438 22.851307 35.329579 61.442729 127.826569 431.310707
2025-02-16 11.093423 15.493223 22.668444 36.745200 69.150050 167.348450 905.563554
2025-02-23 10.280775 14.592648 21.829112 36.652356 73.383496 202.580484 1930.896943
2025-03-02 9.584703 13.792846 21.031145 36.431430 77.253198 243.844957 5530.705770
2025-03-09 9.085489 13.261100 20.630023 36.955798 83.597507 311.865080 85882.995512
2025-03-16 8.407696 12.357409 19.416600 35.378037 82.791007 339.912118 NaN
2025-03-23 7.982262 11.852205 18.899327 35.326829 87.142653 420.549907 NaN
2025-03-30 7.426063 11.072266 17.763077 33.558888 84.672452 440.353551 NaN
2025-04-06 6.816423 10.183808 16.386079 31.119577 79.402266 429.124617 NaN
2025-04-13 6.318662 9.466486 15.294369 29.258324 75.837895 433.308138 NaN
2025-04-20 6.497211 9.975873 16.719332 34.200741 103.390698 1158.217633 NaN
2025-04-27 6.401135 9.968218 17.071490 36.386947 121.954526 2657.112348 NaN
2025-05-04 6.011434 9.377005 16.100475 34.489082 117.110242 2833.082563 NaN
2025-05-11 5.884212 9.277599 16.198119 35.854487 133.012303 8141.395523 NaN
2025-05-18 5.669697 8.993691 15.852739 35.764966 140.031705 21436.371535 NaN
2025-05-25 5.464440 8.714450 15.490847 35.551928 146.353592 108271.166715 NaN
2025-06-01 5.316901 8.539218 15.351351 36.057536 159.284947 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 5.064881 8.141923 14.658664 34.535836 154.025559 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 4.911413 7.934071 14.397811 34.486429 162.123265 NaN NaN